Month: October 2022

Federal Budget 2022-23 Analysis

by victoria

Budget October 2022: sign of the times

In his first Budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasised the three Rs – responsible budget repair and restrained spending, right for the times.

For good measure, resilience also got a mention with spending targeted at building a more modern economy to deal with the challenges ahead.

This is the first budget from a federal Labor government in almost a decade, barely five months since Labor was elected and seven months since the Coalition’s pre-election budget in March, so it was bound to be a little different. The Treasurer used the opportunity to update the shifting economic sands and reset spending priorities to align with the new government’s policy agenda.

For Australians wondering what the Albanese Labor government will mean for them and their family, this is the first piece of a puzzle that will be completed over the next three years.

The big picture

The Labor government has inherited an improving bottom line, with the deficit for 2022-23 expected to come in at $36.9 billion, an improvement of more than $40 billion on the pre-election forecast. This was due to high commodity prices for our exports and higher tax receipts from a strong labour market and robust corporate profits.

The deficits of $224.7 billion previously forecast for the next four years have shrunk to $182 billion. The difference of around $40 billion will go towards funding the government’s election promises and budget repair.

Labor has also found $22 billion in savings by cancelling or redirecting programs planned by the previous Coalition government, and a further $3.6 billion in cuts to external consultants, marketing, travel and legal expenses. Savings will also come from clamping down on tax avoidance by individuals and foreign corporations.

But as the Treasurer is fond of saying, storm clouds are looming, and he singled out inflation as the biggest challenge.

Economic challenges ahead

Inflation is forecast to peak at 7.75% by year’s end, before returning to 3.5% in 2023-24. Despite low unemployment currently at 3.75% it is tipped to rise to 4.5% by 2023-24, the surge in inflation means wages are unlikely to grow in real terms until 2024 at the earliest. Wages growth is forecast to be 3.75% in 2023-24, overtaking inflation of 3.5%.

With more interest rate hikes expected to tame inflation, debt is also set to climb from $895.3 billion last financial year to a forecast $927 billion in 2022-23 and upwards over the forward estimates.

With global economic headwinds building to gale force, Australia’s economic growth is expected to slow as cost-of-living pressures bite into household budgets.

While Dr Chalmers does not expect Australia to slide into recession like many of our trading partners, economic growth is already slowing. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to be 3.25% in 2022-23, down from 3.9% last financial year, and 1.5% in 2023-24, 1 percentage point lower than predicted in the March Budget.

Support for families

Childcare and improved parental leave are a priority area for the new government, in an effort to support families, reduce cost-of-living pressures and improve women’s workforce participation.

Already, $4.7 billion has been earmarked for childcare over the next four years, with families earning less than $530,000 to receive extra childcare subsidies from 1 July 2023. An extension of paid parental leave from the current 18 weeks to 26 weeks is also set to be phased in from next July, so neither initiative will add to the current Budget.

Health and aged care

Pressures on the federal health and aged care budget are mounting in the wake of COVID and an $8.8 billion blowout in the NDIS budget which will reach $166.4 billion over four years. An extra 380 staff will be hired at a cost of $158.2 million to speed up claims and make the system more efficient.

$750 million will be spent strengthening Medicare and $235 million over four years to roll out Urgent Care Clinics to reduce pressure on public hospitals.

Following revelations from the Aged Care Royal Commission and lessons learned during the pandemic, the government has pledged to fund an increase in aged care workers’ wages.

And the cost of subsidised prescription medications will be cut from $42.50 to $30 from January 1, at a cost of $756 million over four years.

More affordable housing

A centrepiece of the Budget to improve housing affordability and chronic shortages is a new Housing Accord to build 1 million new houses in five years beginning in 2024.

The new $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund will provide a sustainable funding source to increase housing supply, including 20,000 new social housing dwellings, 4,000 of which will be allocated to women and children impacted by family and domestic violence and older women at risk of homelessness.

The plan paves the way for significant public and private investment in new housing across the country, following an historic agreement between the federal government, the states and private investors including superannuation funds.

Jobs, skills and education

Federal, state and territory governments have committed to a $1 billion one-year agreement to deliver 180,000 fee-free TAFE and community-based vocational education places from January 2023. Support will be targeted to priority groups, including First Nations people, and priority areas such as care sectors.

The government will also create 20,000 more subsidised university places over 2023 and 2024. The initiative will be targeted at disadvantaged groups to study courses where there are skills shortages.

Nation building and future-proofing

As part of its budget review, the government will ‘’realign” $6.5 billion of existing infrastructure spending. It will spend $8.1 billion on key infrastructure projects including the Suburban Rail Loop East in Melbourne, the Bruce Highway and other important freight highways.

The government has also committed to at least $40 billion in new borrowing to set up funds and companies to invest in policy promises. These include the $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Corporation to invest in the electricity grid, $15 billion National Reconstruction Fund for local manufacturing and the $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund to invest in social housing.

In an acknowledgement of the increased frequency and severity of natural disaster, up to $200 million per year will be set aside for disaster prevention and resilience.

Climate change

A more comprehensive approach to climate change is also back on the agenda, with total climate-related spending of $24.9 billion over 2022-23.

As many of the nation’s largest emitters are in regional areas, the government will establish a $1.9 billion Powering the Regions Fund to help transition regional industries to net zero. And $345 million will be made available to increase uptake of electric vehicles.

Superannuation, pensioners and tax

What’s not in the Budget is also important. There was little new spending to help retirees and welfare recipients, but pensions and payments will increase due to indexation.

As previously announced, the amount Age Pensioners can earn before they begin to lose pension entitlements will temporarily increase from $7,800 to $11,800 this financial year.

While most superannuation fund members will welcome the lack of tinkering to the super rules, the investment potential of the new affordable housing initiatives should provide a valuable source of income to super funds and their members.

Women’s safety

The Treasurer pledged a record investment of $1.7 billion to support implementation of the new National Plan to End Violence Against Women and Children. This will include funding for 500 new frontline service and community workers to support women in crisis.

The Government is also legislating 10 days of paid family and domestic violence leave for all types of employees.

Looking ahead

The next 12 months are likely to be challenging for the economy and for households trying to budget for rising prices and interest rates, including higher mortgage repayments, at a time when home values are falling and real wages are going backwards.

The Treasurer has tried to walk a fine line between budget repair and responsible spending with long-term economic benefits for individuals and the nation.

Coming just months after the federal election, this Budget should be seen as laying the groundwork for the three Budgets to follow.

Information in this article has been sourced from the Budget Speech 2022-23 and Federal Budget Support documents.

It is important to note that the policies outlined in this publication are yet to be passed as legislation and therefore may be subject to change.

This Newsletter provides general information only. The content does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider taking financial advice tailored to your personal circumstances. We have representatives that are authorised to provide personal financial advice. Please see our website https://superevo.net.au or call 02 9098 5055 for more information on our available services.

October 2022 Newsletter

by victoria

It’s October and the footy finals are almost over, depending on which code you follow. In Canberra though, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is warming up for his first Budget on October 25 against a background of mounting economic pressures.

In September, persistently high inflation and aggressive rate hikes by the world’s central banks put global share and bond markets under pressure. The US Federal Reserve has lifted rates seven times this year, but US inflation remains at 8.3%. There is now growing fear that central banks may push the world into recession. In a surprise twist, the Bank of England (which has also lifted rates seven times this year) was forced to switch back to Quantitative Easing, buying government bonds to support the British pound which crashed to a record low in response to a stimulatory mini-Budget released by the new Conservative Party leadership. This led to a late relief rally on global sharemarkets and a fall in the US dollar and global bond yields. Even so, major global sharemarkets finished the month down 6% or more.

In Australia, the picture is a little brighter. Economic growth was up 3.6% in the year to June. Company profits are also strong, up 28.5% in the year to June, and unemployment remains low, at 3.5% in August. While inflation eased from 7% in July to 6.8% in August, due to falling petrol prices, it is still well above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target. Aussie consumers continue to spend at record levels, pushing up retail spending by 19.2% in the year to August, and petrol prices are set to increase by at least 22c a litre after the reinstatement of the fuel excise. Both will put upward pressure on inflation and interest rates.

The Aussie dollar fell more than 3c against the surging US dollar in September, to US65c.

Mortgage vs super

Mortgage vs super

With interest rates on the rise and investment returns increasingly volatile, Australians with cash to spare may be wondering how to make the most of it. If you have a mortgage, should you make extra repayments or would you be better off in the long run boosting your super?

The answer is, it depends. Your personal circumstances, interest rates, tax and the investment outlook all need to be taken into consideration.

What to consider

Some of the things you need to weigh up before committing your hard-earned cash include:

Your age and years to retirement

The closer you are to retirement and the smaller your mortgage, the more sense it makes to prioritise super. Younger people with a big mortgage, dependent children, and decades until they can access their super have more incentive to pay down housing debt, perhaps building up investments outside super they can access if necessary.

Your mortgage interest rate

This will depend on whether you have a fixed or variable rate, but both are on the rise. As a guide, the average variable mortgage interest rate is currently around 4.5 per cent so any money directed to your mortgage earns an effective return of 4.5 per cent.i

When interest rates were at historic lows, you could earn better returns from super and other investments; but with interest rates rising, the pendulum is swinging back towards repaying the mortgage. The earlier in the term of your loan you make extra repayments, the bigger the savings over the life of the loan. The question then is the amount you can save on your mortgage compared to your potential earnings if you invest in super.

Super fund returns

In the 10 years to 30 June 2022, super funds returned 8.1 per cent a year on average but fell 3.3 per cent in the final 12 months.ii In the short-term, financial markets can be volatile but the longer your investment horizon, the more time there is to ride out market fluctuations. As your money is locked away until you retire, the combination of time, compound interest and concessional tax rates make super an attractive investment for retirement savings.

Tax

Super is a concessionally taxed retirement savings vehicle, with tax on investment earnings of 15 per cent compared with tax at your marginal rate on investments outside super.

Contributions are taxed at 15 per cent going in, but this is likely to be less than your marginal tax rate if you salary sacrifice into super from your pre-tax income. You may even be able to claim a tax deduction for personal contributions you make up to your annual cap. Once you turn 60 and retire, income from super is generally tax free. By comparison, mortgage interest payments are not tax-deductible.

Personal sense of security

For many people there is an enormous sense of relief and security that comes with having a home fully paid for and being debt-free heading into retirement. As mortgage interest payments are not tax deductible for the family home (as opposed to investment properties), younger borrowers are often encouraged to pay off their mortgage as quickly as possible. But for those close to retirement, it may make sense to put extra savings into super and use their super to repay any outstanding mortgage debt after they retire.

These days, more people are entering retirement with mortgage debt. So whatever your age, your decision will also depend on the size of your outstanding home loan and your super balance. If your mortgage is a major burden, or you have other outstanding debts, then debt repayment is likely a priority.

All things considered

As you can see, working out how to get the most out of your savings is rarely simple and the calculations will be different for everyone. The best course of action will ultimately depend on your personal and financial goals.

Buying a home and saving for retirement are both long-term financial commitments that require regular review. If you would like to discuss your overall investment strategy, give us a call.

i https://www.finder.com.au/the-average-home-loan-interest-rate

ii https://www.chantwest.com.au/resources/super-members-spared-the-worst-in-a-rough-year-for-markets

Getting the balance right in decision making

Getting the balance right in decision making

We all approach decision making in our own way, making a multitude of decisions every day: ‘Should I hit snooze again on the alarm?,’ ‘Do I take the train to work, or do I drive,’ ‘What should we have for dinner?’

In fact, researchers estimate that the average adult makes 35,000 decisions every day.i While most of these are fairly insignificant, we also constantly make complex decisions that may support us in many areas of our lives – from navigating a change of career, handling a new project at work, or even managing the complexities of interpersonal relationships.

Having some knowledge of the decision-making process can help you to be more self-aware when faced with those larger, more complex decisions.

The biology of thought

The human brain is an intricate organ. It contains about 100 billion neurons and 100 trillion connections, and controls our emotions, thoughts, and actions. Our brains appear wired to work in complex ways to enable us to make the best decisions possible with the information we’re given. In very simple terms the process is a little like a court trial. Our brains register sensory information like sights and sounds and then act as a jury to weigh each piece of ‘evidence’ to make a judgement or decision.

Thinking fast and slow

Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman in his hugely successful book Thinking, Fast and Slow – suggests that there are two distinct and different ways the brain forms thoughts.ii

‘Fast thinking’ is automatic, intuitive, and used for most common decisions. It is our brain conserving energy by making the bulk of its decisions on some degree of autopilot. This style of thinking uses cognitive shortcuts to let us respond quickly and instinctively to a wide range of fast and ever-changing inputs, like discerning emotions from facial expressions, ducking when something is thrown at us, reading words on a billboard, or driving a car on an empty road.

On the other hand, ‘slow thinking’ is more thorough and logical but also takes more time and is resource intensive. It kicks in when you focus on a task or problem, monitor and control your behaviour, formulate an argument or do anything that causes your brain to exert itself.

Different thinking for different situations

Of course, both styles of thinking have their place. It’s important to be able to make fast decisions when required – in fact, fast thinking comes from the most primal part of our brain to help us make the kind of snap decisions integral to survival. However, there are times when you need to analyse and think through all the implications of a complex decision like whether to accept that new job offer interstate or buy that new car.

Amongst the multitude of small decisions we face every day, it can be hard to find the time and energy for the big ones. Steve Jobs famously explained that he wore the same outfit every day to have one less easy decision to make so that he could focus his energy on the more complex decisions he was dealing with.

Minimising mistakes

If you find you rely heavily on fast thinking in your life, making choices based on gut instinct with little research or consideration, it may be time to consciously slow it down.

While that may not mean wearing the same outfit day in, day out, you might be able to have a few things in your life on autopilot, like putting together a weekly meal plan so thinking about what’s for dinner is one less decision to make in your busy day.

Slow thinking takes discipline and effort. It’s important to approach critical decisions in a measured way and give yourself the time and head space to think things through, rather than being swayed by emotion or the cognitive biases associated with fast thinking.

Good decision-making, either financial or otherwise also benefits from having a sounding board to talk things through with, and of course we are here to assist with any important financial decisions you may be faced with.

i https://iise.org/details.aspx

ii https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow

Guide to concession cards for seniors

Guide to concession cards for seniors

The excitement of heading towards retirement and a new stage of life can be tinged with concern over how to manage finances. For many people, seniors’ concession cards are a good way to help make ends meet.

While discounts on goods and services are always welcome, they’re even more valued right now as living costs continue to climb.

Concession cards for seniors provide significant discounts on medicines, public transport, rates and power bills. Many private businesses – from cinemas to hairdressers – also offer reduced prices to concession card holders.

There are different types of concession cards offered by federal, state and territory governments. While some are for those receiving government benefits, others are available to almost anyone aged over 60.

The cards are free and should not be confused with commercial discount cards that require an upfront fee or ongoing subscription.

Seniors Card

The Seniors Card is offered by all state and territory governments when you turn 60 (64 years in Western Australia) and are no longer working full time. This card is offered to everyone, regardless of your assets or income.

The Card will allow you to claim discounts on things like public transport fares, council rates and power bills. Thousands of businesses across Australia also offer reduced prices to Seniors Card holders. In some states, a separate card is offered to access discounts provided by private businesses and another card is provided for public transport.

For eligibility requirements and the range of services offered in your state or territory, click on a link below:

Victoria

South Australia

Western Australia

Northern Territory

Queensland

New South Wales

Australian Capital Territory

Tasmania 

Federal Government concession cards

If you’re receiving a government pension or allowance, you’re a self-funded retiree or you’re a veteran, you may be eligible for one of several cards issued by the Federal Government.

The Pensioner Concession Card is automatically issued to people receiving pensions or certain allowances.

The card provides discounts on most medicines, out-of-hospital medical expenses, hearing assessments, hearing aids and batteries, and some Australia Post services.

In most states and territories, card holders receive at least one free rail journey within their state or territory each year.

Commonwealth Seniors Health Card

If you’ve reached the qualifying age for an Age Pension (currently 66 years and 6 months) but you’re not eligible to receive a pension, you may be entitled to the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card.

You can receive the card if you:

While there is an income test, no assets test applies. You will receive similar benefits to the Pensioner Concession Card.

Low Income Health Card

For those on a low income but not yet at Age Pension age, the Low Income Health Care Card can be a big help. If you meet the income test, you’ll get cheaper health care and medicines and other discounts.

Your gross income, before tax, earned in the eight weeks before you submit your claim is assessed and must be below certain limits.

The types of income included in the test includes wages and any benefits you receive from an employer, self employment income, rental income, super contributions as well as pensions and government allowances.

Other types of income are also counted including:

  • Deemed income from investments

  • Income and deemed income from income stream products such as super pensions

  • Foreign income

  • Distributions from private trusts and companies

  • Compensation payments

  • Lump sums such as redundancy, leave or termination payments.

Veteran Card

The Department of Veterans’ Affairs has a concession card for anyone who has served in the armed forces and their dependents.
Like other government concession cards, the Veteran Card provides access to cheaper medicines and medical care as well as discounts from various businesses. The Veteran Card is a new offering, combining the former white, gold and orange cards. There is no change to entitlements or services with the new card.


As you can see, the potential savings from seniors concession cards can be significant so be sure to check your eligibility. If you would like help working out your income and other eligibility requirements, give us a call.

This Newsletter provides general information only. The content does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider taking financial advice tailored to your personal circumstances. We have representatives that are authorised to provide personal financial advice. Please see our website https://superevo.net.au or call 02 9098 5055 for more information on our available services.