December 2020 Newsletter

December and summer are finally here, along with a renewed sense of optimism that strict lockdown measures will ease by Christmas. It’s been a tough year, but once again Australians have proved extremely resilient. We wish all our clients and their families a relaxed and happy Christmas.

November was an extraordinarily action-packed month for the global and local economy. Joe Biden’s US election victory released a pressure valve on global markets, with US shares reaching new historic highs and Australian shares up more than 9% over the month. Continue reading “December 2020 Newsletter”

October 2020 Newsletter

October is here and it’s shaping up to be a busy month. Many of us are taking advantage of the October long weekend and school holidays for a much-needed staycation in our home states, while Melbourne has announced a further easing of restrictions. Next week, all eyes will be on Tuesday’s Federal Budget.

The scene is set for one of the most important Federal Budgets in living memory, after COVID-19 delayed the usual May delivery to October 6. In September it was confirmed that Australia is in recession. The economy contracted 7% in the June quarter following the 0.3% fall in the March quarter, taking the annual decline to 6.3%, the biggest since 1945. The pandemic has also hit the federal budget bottom line, with a budget deficit of $85.3 billion in the 2019/20 financial year. The biggest government stimulus program since WWII took net government debt to $491 billion, or 24.8% of GDP, with more spending on the cards. Continue reading “October 2020 Newsletter”

Spring 2020

It’s September and spring is finally here. This is always a wonderful time to get out in the garden or in nature, on foot or on your bike, even if travel restrictions mean we need to stay closer to home this year.

The recent company reporting season for the year or half-year to June 30 provided an insight into the financial impact of COVID-19 – on the economy and for investors. Analysis by CommSec showed only 75% of ASX 200 companies reported a net profit in the year to June 30. Full-year earnings were down 38% on aggregate, while dividends were down 36%. In an extremely difficult trading environment, 53% of companies either cut or didn’t pay a dividend, a move that will affect investors who depend on dividend income from shares. Continue reading “Spring 2020”

August 2020 Newsletter

August is here and the wattle is in bloom, a sign that spring is around the corner. Australians will all be hoping for brighter days ahead, as we contend with rising COVID cases and sobering news on the economic front.

After postponing the Federal Budget until October due to COVID, the government released a budget update on July 23 which gave an insight into the economic impact of the health crisis. It estimates a budget deficit of $85.8 billion in 2019-20 (4.3% of GDP) rising to $184.5 billion in 2020-21 (9.7% of GDP). This would be the biggest deficit as a share of GDP since 1946 in the aftermath of WWII. The economy contracted an estimated 0.25% in 2019-20, with a further fall of 2.5% in 2020-21, the first consecutive annual falls in over 70 years. Continue reading “August 2020 Newsletter”

Winter 2020

Winter is here and we are almost to the end of another financial year. And what a year it’s been! With so many Australians impacted by fires, floods, drought and now COVID-19, let’s hope the new financial year sees a return to something like normality.

As May unfolded, hopes grew of economic re-opening. Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe told a Senate Committee on COVID-19 the economic downturn was less severe than feared due to Australia’s better than expected health outcomes and government stimulus and support. However, he stressed: “It’s very important we don’t withdraw fiscal stimulus too early”. Unemployment rose from 5.2% to 6.2% in April, but without JobKeeper support payments it would have been closer to 9.6%. The value of construction work fell 19% in the March quarter, 6.5% over the year, highlighting the need for government stimulus. New business investment in buildings and equipment also fell 6.1% in the year to March, although mining investment bucked the trend, up 4.2% in the March quarter. This was reflected in our record trade surplus of $77.5 billion in the year to April, despite a drop-off in imports and exports in April. Continue reading “Winter 2020”