Tag: Topical/economic

It’s July, there’s a nip in the air and winter has well and truly set in, as Australia deals with COVID outbreaks across several states. But July also marks the start of the new financial year, a good time to reflect on how far we have come since this time last year and to make plans for the year ahead.

As the financial year ended, there was plenty to celebrate on the economic front despite the continuing impact of COVID-19. Australia rebounded out of recession, with economic growth up 1.8% in March, the third consecutive quarterly rise. Interest rates remain at an historic low of 0.1% and inflation sits at just 1.1%, well below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target. Despite fears that global economic recovery will lead to higher inflation and interest rates, the Reserve has indicated rates will not rise until 2024 or annual wage growth reaches 3% (currently 1.5%).

In other positive news, unemployment continues to fall – from 5.5% to 5.1% in May. Retail trade rose 0.1% in May, up 7.4% up on the year, as consumer confidence grows. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index lifted by almost a point in June to 112.2 points.

Australia’s trade surplus increased from $5.8 billion in March to $8 billion in April, the 40th consecutive monthly rise, on the back of strong Chinese demand for our iron ore and other commodities. Iron ore prices rose 6.7% in June and almost 36% in 2021 to date. Oil prices have also surged, with Bent Crude up 8.4% in June and 45% this year. That’s good for producers and energy stocks, but not so good for businesses reliant on fuel and consumers at the petrol bowser. The Aussie dollar finished the year around US75c, up from US69c a year ago but down on its 3-year high of just under US80c in February due to US dollar strength.

Going for gold to achieve your goals

The Olympic Games always provides a platform to marvel at what humans are capable of, as the athletes competing strive to be the fastest, the strongest or just the best, to win gold. While this year may be a little different, the Games still give us the opportunity to be inspired by the remarkable performances of the athletes as they compete.

The passion and discipline in perfecting their craft has propelled these athletes to elite level, so it’s not surprising that many have also found success outside the sporting arena by transferring this focus to new endeavours.

So how can we apply the same determination and focus to achieving success in our everyday lives?

Set clear, realistic goals

SMART (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant and Time-Bound) goals are commonly used by athletes to get closer to their medal dreams.ⁱ By following this structure, your goals will become clearer and will more likely lead you to where you want to go.
No athlete has reached gold by loftily thinking they ‘might train today’! They have a well-planned schedule and overall plan to develop their skills and abilities to elite level. You can do so in other facets of your life as well through goal setting – and then following through.

Build a great team to support your efforts

While we are focused on the athlete, there is an entire team of people behind their success. Usually from a young age, their parents ferried them around, coaches imparted their wisdom and fellow athletes helped improve their skills through competition. Then there are the trainers, physios, dietitians and life coaches who make up a champion’s team.

While you may not need to assemble an entourage, building a strong network can support your endeavours, keep you accountable and provide ongoing motivation. Perhaps this is an advisor or mentor, a business coach, a career specialist, or perhaps even a savvy friend or family member. Get them on board by sharing your vision and outlining how they can help.

Play to your strengths

While there are some athletes who have won Olympic medals in different sports, the majority specialise in one area.ⁱⁱ By playing to your strengths, you can dedicate your time and energy to a set goal, honing your skills and building on an already strong foundation without overextending yourself.

A much-loved story in Olympic history that illustrates playing to strengths is that of Australian speed skater Steven Bradbury. Realising he was not the fastest skater in the group, Steven’s tactic was to stay back of the pack to avoid a collision, which had happened in an earlier race trial. His smarts (and good luck!) paid off when the faster skaters collided, leaving Steven to cross the finish line and win gold.ⁱⁱⁱ

Project confidence

“I am the greatest; I said that even before I knew I was,” boxer Muhammad Ali famously stated. While we don’t all have Ali-levels of confidence, we can take a note from his book in projecting an air of confidence.

This may require a bit of a ‘fake it ‘til you make it’ approach, but it won’t be long until this transforms into actual self-belief. Studies have found that adjustments we make to our bodies, such as standing up straight and smiling, can result in improved mood.^iv

Embrace failure

No-one likes failing, especially those of us who are competitive. Yet athletes learn from failure, using it to improve and craft their skills, inching towards success.

Failure also builds resilience, by dusting yourself off and not giving up, you develop the tenacity to keep going when times are tough. Use failure as a learning experience that helps you grow, develop and take steps towards your ultimate goal.

As we watch the world’s best athletes perform in Tokyo, be inspired to dream big and set your own goals, making sure you then follow through to achieve your very own version of success.

i https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidcarlin/2020/01/10/why-olympic-athletes-are-smarter-than-you/?sh=77bd0d667384

ii https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_athletes_with_Olympic_medals_in_different_sports

iii https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAADWfJO2qM

iv https://psychcentral.com/blog/fake-it-till-you-make-it-5-cheats-from-neuroscience#1

What’s up with inflation?

Fears of a resurgence in inflation has been the big topic of conversation among bond and sharemarket commentators lately, which may come as a surprise to many given that our rate of inflation is just 1.1 per cent. Yet despite market rumblings, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) appears quite comfortable about the outlook.

Inflation is a symptom of rising consumer prices, measured in Australia by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The RBA has an inflation target of 2-3 per cent a year, which it regards as a level to achieve its goals of price stability, full employment and prosperity for Australia.

Currently the RBA expects inflation to be 1.5 per cent this year in Australia, rising to 2 per cent by mid-2023.ⁱ Until the inflation rate returns to the 2-3 per cent mark, the RBA has said it will not lift the cash rate.

US inflation rising

The situation is a little different overseas where inflation has spiked higher. For instance, US inflation shot up to an annual rate of 5 per cent in May, the fastest pace since 2008, up from 4.2 per cent in April.ⁱⁱ As experienced investors would be aware, markets hate surprises. So with inflation rising faster than anticipated, share and bond markets are on edge.

But just like the RBA, the Federal Reserve views this spike as temporary, pointing to it being a natural reaction after the fall in prices last year during the worst days of the COVID crisis. In addition, companies underestimated demand for their goods during the pandemic and as a result there are now bottlenecks in supply that are putting upward pressure on prices.

The central banks believe that once economies get over the kickstart from all the government stimulation, inflation will fall back into line. After all, most world economies went backwards last year, so any growth should be viewed as a good thing and more than likely a temporary event.

But markets are not convinced.

Inflation and wages

Market pundits argue that if businesses must pay more for materials and running costs such as electricity then these increases will most likely be passed on to the consumer.

That’s all very well if your wages also rise, but if your income remains static then your standard of living will go backwards as you will have to spend more money to buy the same goods.

This then becomes a vicious circle. If the cost of living rises, then you will seek higher wages; this will the put further pressure on the costs for businesses. They will then have to increase their prices further to cover the higher wages bill. Some companies may react by reducing staff levels which will lead to higher unemployment.

Impact on investment

Inflation can also have a negative impact on investors because it reduces their real rate of return. That is, the gross return on an investment minus the rate of inflation.

Rising prices and interest rates also impact company profits. With companies facing higher costs, the outlook for corporate earnings growth comes under pressure.

But not all stocks are affected the same. Companies that produce food and other essentials are not as sensitive to inflation because we all need to eat. Mining companies also benefit from rising prices for the commodities they produce. Whereas high growth stocks like technology companies traditionally suffer from rising interest rates.

Markets current fear is that central banks will tighten monetary policy faster than expected. Interest rates will rise, money will tighten, and this will fuel higher inflation.

Bond market fallout

Expectations of higher inflation has already seen the bond market react, with the 10-year bond yield in both Australia and the US on the rise since October last year.

If yields rise, then the value of bonds actually fall. This is particularly concerning for fixed income investors. Not only are you faced with the prospect of capital losses because the price of your existing bond holdings generally falls when rates rise, but the purchasing power of your income will also be reduced as inflation takes its toll. Investments in inflation-linked bonds should fare better in an inflationary environment.

Inflation is part of the economic cycle. Keeping it under control is the key to a well-run economy and that is where central banks play their role.

Call us if you would like to discuss how an uptick in inflation may be impacting your overall investment strategy.

i https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-09.html

ii https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

New Financial Year rings in some super changes

As the new financial year gets underway, there are some big changes to superannuation that could add up to a welcome lift in your retirement savings.

Some, like the rise in the Superannuation Guarantee (SG), will happen automatically so you won’t need to lift a finger. Others, like higher contribution caps, may require some planning to get the full benefit.

Here’s a summary of the changes starting from 1 July 2021.

Increase in the Super Guarantee

If you are an employee, the amount your employer contributes to your super fund has just increased to 10 per cent of your pre-tax ordinary time earnings, up from 9.5 per cent. For higher income earners, employers are not required to pay the SG on amounts you earn above $58,920 per quarter (up from $57,090 in 2020-21).

Say you earn $100,000 a year before tax. In the 2021-22 financial year your employer is required to contribute $10,000 into your super account, up from $9,500 last financial year. For younger members especially, that could add up to a substantial increase in your retirement savings once time and compound earnings weave their magic.

The SG rate is scheduled to rise again to 10.5 per cent on 1 July 2022 and gradually increase until it reaches 12% on 1 July 2025.

Higher contributions caps

The annual limits on the amount you can contribute to super have also been lifted, for the first time in four years.

The concessional (before tax) contributions cap has increased from $25,000 a year to $27,500. These contributions include SG payments from your employer as well as any salary sacrifice arrangements you have in place and personal contributions you claim a tax deduction for.

At the same time, the cap on non-concessional (after tax) contributions has gone up from $100,000 to $110,000. This means the amount you can contribute under a bring-forward arrangement has also increased, provided you are eligible.

Under the bring-forward rule, you can put up to three years’ non-concessional contributions into your super in a single financial year. So this year, if eligible, you could potentially contribute up to $330,000 this way (3 x $110,000), up from $300,000 previously. This is a useful strategy if you receive a windfall and want to use some of it to boost your retirement savings.

More generous Total Super Balance and Transfer Balance Cap

Super remains the most tax-efficient savings vehicle in the land, but there are limits to how much you can squirrel away in super for your retirement. These limits, however, have just become a little more generous.

The Total Super Balance (TSB) threshold which determines whether you can make non-concessional (after-tax) contributions in a financial year is assessed at 30 June of the previous financial year. The TSB at which no non-concessional contributions can be made this financial year will increase to $1.7 million from $1.6 million.

Just to confuse matters, the same limit applies to the amount you can transfer from your accumulation account into a retirement phase super pension. This is known as the Transfer Balance Cap (TBC), and it has also just increased to $1.7 million from $1.6 million.

If you retired and started a super pension before July 1 this year, your TBC may be less than $1.7 million and you may not be able to take full advantage of the increased TBC. The rules are complex, so get in touch if you would like to discuss your situation.

Reduction in minimum pension drawdowns extended

In response to record low interest rates and volatile investment markets, the government has extended the temporary 50 per cent reduction in minimum pension drawdowns until 30 June 2022.

Retirees with certain super pensions and annuities are required to withdraw a minimum percentage of their account balance each year. Due to the impact of the pandemic on retiree finances, the minimum withdrawal amounts were also halved for the 2019-20 and 2020-21 financial years.

Time to prepare

There’s a lot for super fund members to digest. SMSF trustees in particular will need to ensure they document changes that affect any of the members in their fund. But these latest changes also present retirement planning opportunities.

Whatever your situation, if you would like to discuss how to make the most of the new rules, please get in touch.

April is here beginning with a welcome Easter break. As the vaccine rollout continues, restrictions ease, and life is a little closer to normal despite occasional setbacks. Whether you are relaxing at home, or heading off on holidays, we wish you and your family a happy Easter.

There was a raft of positive economic news in March, which should make the Federal Treasurer’s job a little easier when he hands down the Budget on May 11. The Australian economy staged a remarkable V-shaped recovery in 2020, growing 3.1% in the December quarter and 3.4% the previous quarter – the biggest 6-month lift on record – after plunging into recession in the first half year. The main contributor was iron ore, which has doubled in price since March last year.

As the vaccine rollout began and restrictions eased, business and consumer confidence rebounded. The NAB Business Confidence Index rose to an 11-year high of +16.4 points in February while the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating hit a 7-year high of 124 points in March, up 30% over the year.

Confidence was reflected in a recent surge in new vehicle sales, housing construction and property values. It was also boosted by a fall in unemployment from 6.4% to an 11-month low of 5.8% in February. Company profits have also remained strong, with 86% of ASX200 companies reporting a profit in the December half year. Although aggregate earnings fell 17%, dividends were up 5% on a year ago with an estimated $26 billion currently flowing to shareholders.

It’s not all plain sailing though. Temporary coronavirus JobSeeker and JobKeeper payments ended on March 31, and fuel prices are rising just as everyone fills up for Easter road trips. The strengthening economy saw the Aussie dollar shed 2c to US76c in March.

Bonds, inflation and your investments

The recent sharp rise in bond rates may not be a big topic of conversation around the Sunday barbecue, but it has set pulses racing on financial markets amid talk of inflation and what that might mean for investors.

US 10-year government bond yields touched 1.61 per cent in early March after starting the year at 0.9 per cent.ⁱ Australian 10-year bonds followed suit, jumping from 0.97 per cent at the start of the year to a recent high of 1.81 per cent.ⁱⁱ

That may not seem like much, but to bond watchers it’s significant. Rates have since settled a little lower, but the market is still jittery.

Why are bond yields rising?

Bond yields have been rising due to concerns that global economic growth, and inflation, may bounce back faster and higher than previously expected.

While a return to more ‘normal’ business activity after the pandemic is a good thing, there are fears that massive government stimulus and central bank bond buying programs may reinflate national economies too quickly.

The risk of inflation

Despite short-term interest rates languishing close to zero, a sharp rise in long-term interest rates indicates investors are readjusting their expectations of future inflation. Australia’s inflation rate currently sits at 0.9 per cent, half the long bond yield.

To quash inflation fears, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe recently repeated his intention to keep interest rates low until 2024. The RBA cut official rates to a record low of 0.1 per cent last year and launched a $200 billion program to buy government bonds with the aim of keeping yields on these bonds at record lows.ⁱⁱⁱ

Governor Lowe said inflation (currently 0.9 per cent) would not be anywhere near the RBA’s target of between 2 and 3 per cent until annual wages growth rises above 3 per cent from 1.4 per cent now. This would require unemployment falling closer to 4 per cent from the current 6.4 per cent.

In other words, there’s some arm wrestling going on between central banks and the market over whose view of inflation and interest rates will prevail, with no clear winner.

What does this mean for investors?

Bond prices have been falling because investors are concerned that rising inflation will erode the value of the yields on their existing bond holdings, so they sell.

For income investors, falling bond prices could mean capital losses as the value of their existing bond holdings is eroded by rising rates, but healthier income in future.

The prospect of higher interest rates also has implications for other investments.

Shares shaken but not stirred

In recent years, low interest rates have sent investors flocking to shares for their dividend yields and capital growth. In 2020, US shares led the charge with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index up 43.6%.^iv

It’s these high growth stocks that are most sensitive to rate change. As the debate over inflation raged, the so-called FAANG stocks – Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google – fell nearly 17 per cent from mid to late February and remain volatile.^v

That doesn’t mean all shares are vulnerable. Instead, market analysts expect a shift to ‘value’ stocks. These include traditional industrial companies and banks which were sold off during the pandemic but stand to gain from economic recovery.

Property market resilient

Against expectations, the Australian residential property market has also performed strongly despite the pandemic, fuelled by low interest rates.

National housing values rose 4 per cent in the year to February, while total returns including rental yields rose 7.6 per cent. But averages hide a patchy performance, with Darwin leading the pack (up 13.8 per cent) and Melbourne dragging up the rear (down 1.3 per cent).^vi

There are concerns that ultra-low interest rates risk fuelling a house price bubble and worsening housing affordability. In answer to these fears, Governor Lowe said he was prepared to tighten lending standards quickly if the market gets out of hand.

Only time will tell who wins the tussle between those who think inflation is a threat and those who think it’s under control. As always, patient investors with a well-diversified portfolio are best placed to weather any short-term market fluctuations.

If you would like to discuss your overall investment strategy, give us a call.

i Trading economics, viewed 11 March 2021, https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield

ii Trading economics, viewed 11 March 2021, https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-bond-yield

iii https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oecd-economy-idUSKBN2B112G

iv https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/growth-prospects-for-australia-and-world-upgraded-by-oecd-20210309-p57973.html

v https://rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-gov-2021-03-10.html

vi https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/31/stock-market-record-2020/

vii https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2021-03/210301_CoreLogic_HVI.pdf

Making a super split

Separation and divorce can be a challenging time, often made all the more difficult when you have to divide your assets. So how do you go about decoupling your superannuation?

In years gone by, superannuation was not treated as matrimonial property, so divorce settlements typically saw the woman keeping the house as she generally had the children and the man keeping his super. In a sense, neither party won. She ended up with a house but no money for her retirement while he had nowhere to live but money for his later years.

To remedy this situation, since 2002 super can be included when valuing a couple’s combined assets for a divorce settlement. After all, these days super is probably your second largest asset after your family home.

While super is counted in the calculation of the total property, that does not mean it is mandatory to split the super – the choice is yours.

Unlike the early 2000s, both partners are likely to have superannuation these days although traditionally women will still tend to have lower balances.ⁱ On average, women retire with just over half the super balance of men and 23 per cent of women retire with no super at all.

As a result, many divorcing couples may end up splitting super along with their other property.

How to split your super

If you decide to split your super, then you have three avenues, but keep in mind that all require legal advice.

The three ways to split your super are:

• A formal written agreement that both you and your partner instruct a lawyer stating you have sought independent advice,
• A consent order, or
• A court order.

A court order is the last resort if you can’t agree on a property settlement.

You can split your super as you choose both in terms of the amount and the timing. You can split it as a percentage or as an agreed figure and you can choose to split it immediately or at some time in the future. Much will depend on each of your life stages.

But whatever you decide, you MUST comply with the superannuation laws. Money received from your partner’s super must be kept in super unless you satisfy a condition of release. You also need to be mindful of taxable and non-taxable components and divide them equally.

How does it work?

Say the superannuation balances of a couple is $500,000 with John having $400,000 and Susie $100,000. If the property settlement on divorce was decided as a straight 50:50 split and it included the super, then John would need to give $150,000 of his super to Susie.

Susie would nominate a fund and the money would be transferred.

If you have a binding financial agreement or a court order, this transfer of assets from one fund to another will not trigger a CGT event. But if you don’t have such an agreement, then John would trigger a CGT event on the $150,000 he transferred. Susie, meanwhile, would have the advantage of resetting the cost base on her received $150,000. So, a win for Susie, but not for John.

If John happened to be in the pension phase but Susie was still too young, the money that is transferred from his super to Susie will be treated according to his situation. As a result, Susie would be able to access the money before she reached preservation age.

What about SMSFs?

If you have a self-managed super fund, the situation could get a little more complicated as you have to deal with the issue of trusteeship.

If there are only two members/trustees in the fund and Susie chose to leave, then John would either have to find a new trustee within six months or change to a corporate trustee where he could be the sole director.

Assets within an SMSF can also prove an issue, particularly if a sizeable proportion of the fund was tied up in a single asset such as commercial premises. How easy would it be to actually sell the premises? What if the property was John’s business premises and the means by which John was in a position to pay Susie child support? These are questions that need addressing.

If you are in the process of divorce or considering it, why not call us to help you plan your finances before and after the event.

i https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/women-less-than-equal-in-retirement-20201203-p56khb#

Taking a break – a win for you and the economy

2021 is shaping up to be a much more positive year than 2020 in so many ways. For people who put holiday plans on hold or those with itchy feet because they haven’t had much of a break for a while, this year is the year to get out and about.

While overseas jaunts are off the table for some time to come, Australia’s management of the pandemic means we are able to head off and explore the local sights, while helping local communities and industries hit hard by 2020.

Recently the Australian Government announced their latest stimulus package for these industries, with $1.2 billion allocated to help our domestic tourism and aviation sectors.ⁱ

From 1 April 2021, there will be 800,000 half-priced flights available to 13 key regions which includes the Gold Coast, Cairns, the Whitsundays and Mackay region, the Sunshine Coast, Lasseter and Alice Springs, Launceston, Devonport and Burnie, Broome, Avalon, Merimbula and Kangaroo Island.

It’s also worth keeping your eye out for state run initiatives in the form of travel voucher schemes. While the amounts offered and conditions vary from state to state, they generally enable you to wine, dine or stay the night in a location with part of your bill subsidised.

The importance of R&R

There’s nothing like a holiday to help us feel more relaxed and give us a break from our everyday lives, something we very much need after the year that was.

We know that having a break, whether it be from work or just our regular routines, tends to improve our wellbeing. It can offer a circuit breaker from some of your stressors, give you a new perspective as you take in new surroundings, lighten your mood as you do things you enjoy, give you a chance to spend some quality time with loved ones and simply recharge your batteries by sleeping in and taking it easy.

Supporting local

Perhaps you had to cancel that trip to Paris or have to let go the idea of relaxing on a beach in Bali. Fortunately, we are spoiled for choice when it comes to travelling in Australia, whether it’s a beach holiday you are after, a hike in the mountains, a trip to the snow, a tour of the outback or a foray into a rainforest. We are blessed with a myriad of natural wonders as well as vibrant cities with world class restaurants, attractions and nightlife. Not only will you have a wonderful time, you can also feel good about supporting businesses who need a hand getting back on their feet.

While it can seem like a distant memory due to the COVID-19 outbreak, 2020 was also a hard time for many Australians due to the bushfires that ravaged many parts of the country. As a result, the locations affected are needing to rebuild and welcome tourists back, so why not give them a visit.

Planning your trip

Whether you take advantage of the flight specials or instead travel by bus, train or car, seeing another part of the country will give you something to look forward to.

While we may have become nervous about forward planning due to the uncertainty of 2020, being organised will enable you to make the most of travel deals and plan your itinerary so you can fit in everything you want to do.

If you’re concerned about travelling at the present time, why not take the road less travelled and head to a private spot (perhaps an Airbnb rather than a busy hotel) in a destination that isn’t as well-known. By avoiding popular travel periods such as the school holidays, you will also avoid the crowds.

Wherever you travel in Australia, whether it’s to the other side of the country or just down the road, we hope you enjoy your well-deserved break and are able to recharge your batteries for what is shaping up to be an exciting year ahead.

i https://www.nestegg.com.au/invest-money/economy/government-launches-half-price-flights-to-kickstart-tourism